Are We in the Middle of an AI Bubble Collapse? Not Yet.

Recently, some voices claim the “AI bubble is bursting.”But historically, every major technological revolution has gone through a disillusionment phase—this is nothing new.

Learning from history is important. Still, we must leave room for a different possibility:this cycle may not follow the traditional script.Today, real-world AI adoption and market expectations are racing each other. When the gap between the two becomes unmanageable, the disillusionment phase will arrive.

But that moment is not now.

At present, GPU demand remains overwhelmingly above supply.Some investors obsess over NVIDIA’s quarterly results, yet the only thing that truly matters is this:supply will likely not catch up until 2027, or even later.Concerns about last quarter’s “soft” data center revenue miss the larger point. NVIDIA has begun delivering not only GPUs but full server racks and entire AI factory systems. That naturally delays revenue recognition. The underlying condition remains unchanged—the world is in a GPU shortage.

So what exactly is there to worry about?

Some compare Meta’s fundraising structures to the subprime era, pointing out that they are starting to offload data center financing off their balance sheet and shaping it for higher credit ratings. But this is not the end-stage excess of a dying bubble—it is the beginning phase of financial engineering around AI infrastructure.

Stock prices have cooled after an accelerated rise. Does that signal a bubble burst?No — this is merely a correction. The AI bubble has not popped.

So when might it actually crack?Possibly in late 2026 or 2027, when GPU supply and demand begin to converge.Or when OpenAI starts openly saying, “We don’t have enough capital,” in a way that signals financial strain.

At that point, Meta’s off–balance sheet financing structures may be widespread, creating hidden leverage across the market. But we are not there yet. Not even close.

For now, the bubble continues. No need to overthink it.